U.S. Data Suggests Europe Having Impact

The unofficial recession underway since last year in Europe and most visible in Greece appears to be undermining the resilience of all the economies around the rest of the world, clearly now including the United States as well.

On Thursday economic data show a US economy once again increasingly at risk of ( Read more... )

It is now virtually certain that US GDP may soon be, if not already, contracting in Q3. This follows two dreadfully anemic quarters so far for the year: Q1 grew just 0.1% (0.4% annualized), and Q2 grew just 0.3% (1.3% annualized). The first half had been so deep in "stall speed" that virtually any "shock" could throw the US economy into recession ( Read more... )

In addition to an outright double dip recession in housing, US manufacturing looks as if it may very well now be contracting again. Regional manufacturing surveys from the New York and Philly regions confirm other reports of a broad reversal of fortune underway in manufacturing here in the US, specifically, as well as all around the world.

( Read more... )

March 2011 Business Outlook Survey
Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to show improvement in March. The survey's broadest indicators either improved from their readings in February or remained at relatively high levels. Increases in input prices continue to be widespread, and more ( Read more... )

*Note: If the annual growth rate in the U.S. economy does indeed come in as low as this survey predicts, then the survey's expected unemployment rates are probably too rosy (or, more accurately, not high enough).

Fourth Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Release Date: November 15, 2010
Forecasters Predict Further Slowdown in Economic ( Read more... )